The High Cost of No Deal: Consequences of Failing to Revive the US-Iran Nuclear Agreement
The global politics is becoming a dirty game over the period of time. Countries are working hard to preserve their national interests at the expense of bloody wars. The global politics of the 21st century is very hard to understand; the changing behavior of leaders and the rise of xenophobic politicians are making difficult for the masses to live under the peaceful world. History has witnessed bloody wars and conflicts; thousands have been killed and burnt to death, but the recent tactics and methods of war have been changed. However, the recent US and Iran impasse is a current topic to analyze the behavior of leaders and foreign policies of arch rivals. The meeting held in Rome to discuss Iran’s nuclear issue and get a decisive solution. Many analysts were hopeful that deal would reach a conclusion and the world see a new peace settlement of an issue. But unfortunately, the unpredictable US president imposed sanctions on Iranian Oil. We saw peaceful comments from both sides a couple of weeks ago but the recent actions of Trump further aggravating the peaceful settlement of a deal which can bring prosperity in the region. The Trump Administration said that due to the backing of Iran to proxy groups, the US is imposing sanctions.
One can ponder: was it a good and wise decision of the US president to impose sanctions on the country while a peaceful deal is taking place.?
Unfortunately, the US government is prioritizing Israel over other countries. The staunch support of the US administration to the government of Israel to openly kill innocent children and civilians and violate the international law set by the US while defining its rule based order is alarming. Hence, it was a good opportunity for the US government to peacefully settle the long awaited nuclear deal as the lucky stars were favoring the peaceful conclusion of a deal.
But one can analyze: why did the Trump Administration imposed sanctions in the middle of the deal? Is the US is not willing to conclude this deal or denuclearize the region, or is it using other tactics to deal with Iran?
Whatsoever happens, it is worth mentioning here that the irresponsible behavior of Trump administration affects the peace of the region.
However, absent a nuclear deal, Iran is subject to no binding restrictions on uranium enrichment. By late 2023, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran continued to enrich uranium to a purity of 60 percent, which is just below the 90 percent purity needed for weapons-grade fuel. Before 2015, and thus before the JCPOA, Iran was known to have a stockpile of over 10,000 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, with the treaty and its provisions reducing that stockpile to under 300 kilograms. Since U.S. withdrawal in 2018, according to IAEA, Iran has ramped up its stockpile to more than 20 times that limit. Thus, without a deal, Iran could end up on the verge of nuclear weapons breakout capability in months, with scenarios of preemptive Israeli or other attacks forthcoming from there.
It is a small matter to place in tutelage a peaceful Iran, instead of leaving an implacable Iran free to wreak havoc without any constraints. Without a deal, Iran may well be regarded as an existential threat ascending toward regional rivals, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel, leaving them with little option but unilateral action. For instance, in 2020, Israel undertook a variety of clandestine operations, including assassinating Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and carrying out sabotage operations at Natanz nuclear site. With every new escalation along that path, an open conflict would become ever more likely if diplomacy remains stalled.
The regional impact would likely expand as layers of proxy conflict in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq intensify, creating further possibilities for regional war and civilian casualties. The JCPOA was seen as a paradigm of diplomatic nonproliferation. Now its collapse undermines the NPT’s credibility and suggests to countries, such as North Korea, Saudi Arabia, and even Turkey, that diplomacy with the West will be unreliable. North Korea’s exit from the NPT came after years of stalled negotiations, and it was followed by the first test of its nuclear development program. Iran may also choose a similar path, and that would provoke others into developing nuclear programs as bargaining tools, thus raising the risk of proliferation around the globe. The Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of the global oil passes is highly sensitive to the Iran-U.S. tensions. Without a deal, threats or attacks that happen in the area escalate to the energy markets. For example, Iran caused the US surveillance drone to crash in 2019, and oil tankers were assaulted in the Gulf. Brent crude prices jumped almost 10% in a single day after Iran’s retaliatory moves against US bases in Iraq in January 2020.
Protracted standoff conditions may swing oil prices beyond the $100 per barrel threshold, potentially squeezing energy-dependent economies such as Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and many in Africa, further grappling with inflation and currency devaluation. Iran has entirely turned eastwards, especially since in 2021, it established a strategic partnership with China for 25 years, reportedly worth $400 billion dollars, with provisions for infrastructure, energy, and military cooperation. Military exercises with Russia and joint military tech transfers have been expanded by Tehran and Moscow. Iran has provided combat drones acquired from China for use against the Ukraine Armed Forces, whereas Russia backs Iran’s membership into Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS.
Now, because there have been no deals inked with the West, Iran has become ever more entrenched economically and militarily into an anti-West bloc that will severely limit future diplomatic leverage. Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, despite Iran’s full compliance per IAEA, sent an obviously damaging message: the US does NOT keep its international commitments. It undermines the entire fabric of trust that is developing regarding US diplomacy. For instance, European allies like France and Germany openly opposed Trump’s annulment, even launching the INSTEX mechanism to circumvent US sanctions. By 2025, countries such as India, Brazil, and Indonesia are gravitating toward non-aligned or multi-aligned foreign policies as they grow doubtful of US reliability.
As a result, this diminishes American influence in such fora as the UN, G20, and WTO, especially as it stands against global crises like that of the warring Russia in Ukraine or of assertive China in the Indo-Pacific. The collapse of these negotiations would entail not only a loss of diplomatic opportunity but would also trigger many ramifications: a nuclear-armed Middle East, disruption of oil markets, humanitarian catastrophes in Iran, and further erosion of the non-proliferation regime.
Written by: Uroosa Khan The author is a PRCCSF fellow and research analyst having keen interest in foreign policy,history,geopolitics, and international relations
